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Thread: 2014 Census predictions and results

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    2014 Census predictions and results

    What do you think the Census will reveal this time round and what will the PR spin be on it this time?
    Personally I think numbers may be up slightly although by not as much as in previous times with the focus being on inner city groups bit of a wild guess but any other ideas?

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    Up 5% locally - woo hoo - and yes I do think that's a good thing !

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    DESC - EAST HERTS 99claydond's Avatar
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    i think we're slightly up again this year,
    I know explorers is slightly up, we shall see!

    Hopefully its up - we want to grow the movement :-)
    Dan Claydon - District Explorer Scout Commissioner, District Network Co-ordinator, District Quartermaster and District E.Link Editor - East Herts
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    Assistant Beaver Leader Keith's Avatar
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    Anything to do with diversity will be up on last year - more girls joining and what with the new alternative promise we will have more people who identify themselves as not having a faith.
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    DESC - EAST HERTS 99claydond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    Anything to do with diversity will be up on last year - more girls joining and what with the new alternative promise we will have more people who identify themselves as not having a faith.
    Very good point!
    Dan Claydon - District Explorer Scout Commissioner, District Network Co-ordinator, District Quartermaster and District E.Link Editor - East Herts
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    GSL & ESL shiftypete's Avatar
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    I think numbers will be up again and the focus might be on the growth in numbers in the Explorer age range.

    Peter Andrews ESL of Headingley Pirates ESU, Group Scout Leader & Webmaster of Falkoner Scout Group
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    Map Geek marcush's Avatar
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    I think there will be growth and Pete whilst I agree, there are issues with Explorers and their data, YLs main problem area, however can still see there being an increase, mainly due to YUF projects around the UK.

    Decrease our waiting lists, yes due to YUF.

    Think there will be some increase in Adults.

    Now 2015 will be an 'interesting' census year.

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    Senior Member David Kendall's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    Anything to do with diversity will be up on last year - more girls joining and what with the new alternative promise we will have more people who identify themselves as not having a faith.
    Not sure how more people not having a faith is going to be identified via the census - don't recall there being any questions related to this ?
    In between roles/helping out where I can......

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    Map Geek marcush's Avatar
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    There never has been and from what I've seen the diversity indicators HQ use to measure diversity and inclusion is purely females ... that odd species from Venus :P

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    a quiver full of barbs merryweather's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Richard T View Post
    What do you think the Census will reveal this time round and what will the PR spin be on it this time?
    Personally I think numbers may be up slightly although by not as much as in previous times with the focus being on inner city groups bit of a wild guess but any other ideas?
    pure speculation. 'spin' is always positive.

    i think numbers will be up again; 2-3% rather than 5%. variation in numbers might be a little more, i.e. the +/- on that 5% might be more (say 1% - 7%). yes, possibly more inner city groups, but not a huge increase methinks. 'steady growth'.

    the biggest change in the numbers will be in explorers. i think some of this will be growth but a lot maybe just better recording. rumblings do suggest that districts are getting better at recording though there are a lot of anomalies still around (e.g. the statistical return from groups saying 89 YLs and the census return from the district saying 22 explorers.) certainly when i handed in numbers this year the district secretary was confused on explorer/YL numbers associated with my group. he had us down for 7 YLs, because we had 7 go to YL module A training this last year; however, 4 of those were purely external DofE, 2 were scouts who were doing DofE (through an eternal OA), leaving just 1 YL/explorer, not 7.

    adult leader members i'd say will be flat overall but we might have a few more associate.

    leader demographics will probably show an increase in younger leaders (u30), balanced by a few less for your older members (30-50), and maybe 'flat' for your senior members (+50). while we are attracting younger leaders, i think we're losing more adults in the range 30-50/60 - the likely more 'skilled' scouters. we are, however, retaining more of the senior scouters in the 'senior roles' (as the 'retired' section of the population grows).

    speculation.

    cordially yours ,TM

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    a quiver full of barbs merryweather's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by marcush View Post
    I think there will be growth and Pete whilst I agree, there are issues with Explorers and their data, YLs main problem area, however can still see there being an increase, mainly due to YUF projects around the UK.
    YUF is youth united foundation, see: http://scouts.org.uk/yuf-project/

    just in case anyone is wondering what young whippersnapper marcus is going on about!

    the 'yuf' of today do talk funny at times!



    regards, TM

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    A drop.

    The movement has lost its focus on growth that it had around the new uniform, 100 year celebrations, 21st WSJ, Bears appointment etc. The waves created then became ripples have now stopped.

    Adults nos will go into decline too.

    We need to stop being so fixated with H&S, Promises, Equality etc

    TSA needs to move forward once again.

    Focus on having fun, on excellent programmes and activities for young people......

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    ESL and DESC ianw's Avatar
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    Apparently our district has grown...by one. No, not one percent...one person!

    Ian
    Ian Wilkins
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    a quiver full of barbs merryweather's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ianw View Post
    Apparently our district has grown...by one. No, not one percent...one person!

    Ian
    so you're now 6' 1"?




    TM

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    Quote Originally Posted by ianw View Post
    Apparently our district has grown...by one. No, not one percent...one person!

    Ian
    As a matter of interest every new section we have opened has almost immediately filled up - within 3 months. We're about to open a new group in a village which hasn't had a scout group for 25 years, I am confident that will fill fairly soon too. I think the point is that if we had the adult leaders we could significantly increase numbers. However that's easier said than done - especially for a new section or group, the year we collapsed in numbers was entirely due to two groups suffering with adult leadership (one having to close and the other suffering a death).

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