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Thread: Planning against the threat of a pandemic

  1. #16
    Senior Member CambridgeSkip's Avatar
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    Timing will be everything.

    From what I've read the current modeling predicts, within the UK, that 50% of cases will occur in a 3 week period. Obviously there is a margin of error here, but if that is broadly true it will depend on when that it is.

    During that period I suspect everything will be cancelled, possibly due to unavailability of adults than anything else. Immediately either side of it as well. Call it a 6 week wipe out. Outside of that we will have to wait and see.

    For our current summer camp we have 2 adults going with NAPs. We are planning on getting a 3rd adult through the NAP process as a back up in case both us are laid out with it.

  2. #17
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    I had an interesting one today. A parent told me their son is not going to summer camp as they have a four week holiday booked. But if Coronavirus upsets travels plans (that is a moderate risk as international travel is likely to take a hit), then they will send him on summer camp.

    I was anticipating our summer camp going south, rather than being more popular.

    As there are plenty of families in our group who do go home to grandma for the summer, this may be something we need to keep an eye on.


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  3. #18
    ASL wealdbrook's Avatar
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    I am not sure we know definitely enough what the risks of transmission are. Does the infected person have to be coughing? How close do you need to be (and how does time affect the chances of transmission). And the experts all say that young people are likely to be only mildly affected.
    I would be happy to carry on and let the young people (sorry, their parents) choose whether to continue.
    Flu comes round each year and we have horror stories of how the (excellent) NHS can't cope and how the death toll is higher than other years.
    John Alexander,
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  4. #19
    Baloo KoopaCooper's Avatar
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    Our Group has decided to just going to Keep Calm and Carry On.

    If a state of emergency does get called and everyone is banned from going outdoors, then we will of course follow that ruling as soon as it is put into effect. Or, likewise, if TSA insists on shutting down all meetings.

    Other than those situations however, we intend to just carry on as normal for as long as parents are still happy to send their kids to the meetings and other activities.

    No point getting in a panic over this after all - remember, we ARE British! *sips fictional cup of tea*
    1988 - 1990: 4th Streatham Sea Scouts (PMLO), Beaver
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  5. #20
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    The Scout Association Safety Manager has just sent guidance for first aid courses:

    "All courses should be risk assessed using the advice given by the Government’s website at the time

    We would advise not doing a practical assessment of the rescue breaths element of CPR to limit cross contamination

    Follow guidance and encourage good hand washing throughout any courses, given the amount of physical contact that is often needed

    Clean/sterilise all equipment used for training between sessions."

    It says that it has gone out to Regional Training Managers, County Training Managers and Trainers - First Aid. I don't know how they know who the first aid trainers are. I did not get a copy.

  6. #21
    Baloo KoopaCooper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveF View Post
    It says that it has gone out to Regional Training Managers, County Training Managers and Trainers - First Aid. I don't know how they know who the first aid trainers are. I did not get a copy.
    Probably read the information from Compass... >_>;
    1988 - 1990: 4th Streatham Sea Scouts (PMLO), Beaver
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    Lambeth - The best Scout District in England!


  7. #22
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    To my mind, once it gets past a certain point there's very little point cancelling everything. If we're going to get it were going to get it.

    Currently sat in the village pub and it's as packed as ever. If I catch it I catch it... It's no worse than flu.

    Far better to isolate the vulnerable, the elderly, those with serious medical conditions, and let it sweep relatively harmlessly through the general population. Once we've had it we will develop an immunity to it.

    Round here the attitude is very much we will carry on regardlesd and what happens happens. Maybe there's more panic in the big cities but out west of the m5 all is well. In all honesty the flooding is still a bigger topic of discussion round here than the virus.

    To quote Shaun of the Dead. "Let's go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this all to blow over."

  8. #23
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    Slight update... there is a conversation at the bar now about the virus.... but only about the idiots panic buying toilet rolls and baked beans.

    Maybe it's my scouting background... or maybe its growing up in a semi rural area rather than a city, but I doubt I ever run below 2 weeks supply of food and toiletries in the house, without ever panic buying. Heck we used to do our main food shop every 2 weeks until a certain German discount store opened nearby.

    If I were to panic buy anything right now it would be beer in case the village pub closed.

  9. #24
    Senior Member big chris's Avatar
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    Our no-deal stash is now our coronavirus stash. I'm all right jack.

    <Waits for Irish passport to turn up>

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  11. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by big chris View Post
    Our no-deal stash is now our coronavirus stash. I'm all right jack.

    <Waits for Irish passport to turn up>

    Sent from my ONEPLUS A5010 using Tapatalk

    We didn't stockpile for brexit either. Just sensible shopping and stock control. Any disaster hits and we should be comfortable for 2 weeks or ok for a month.

    The doctor sat next to me at the bar reckons peak will happen during the Easter holidays, and that by summer it will be well out the way. She's quite laid back about the whole thing and I trust her judgement. Yes people will die.... but people die from flu every winter. This is no worse... We just don't have a vaccine yet.

    We could have stopped it if the Chinese, recognising the severity if the issue, had shut down their borders and kept it within their country.

    200 cases in the UK is still a minor outbreak. I'm not saying I want it but, in all honesty (and my friend the gp agrees) best to get it over with if it's going to happen rather than dragging it out and destroying the economy in the process.

  12. #26
    ASL wealdbrook's Avatar
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    Our District Camp has just been cancelled for the end of April. I guess that at a District, County or similar level it is harder to make these decisions and you don't know how attendees are going to react. At a Group level we have a better understanding of the attitudes of our parents and so we plan to go ahead with our Group camp the week after the (ex) District Camp.
    John Alexander,
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  13. #27
    Yes, I've got the T-shirt Sparkgap's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by campwarden View Post
    We didn't stockpile for brexit either. Just sensible shopping and stock control. Any disaster hits and we should be comfortable for 2 weeks or ok for a month.

    The doctor sat next to me at the bar reckons peak will happen during the Easter holidays, and that by summer it will be well out the way. She's quite laid back about the whole thing and I trust her judgement. Yes people will die.... but people die from flu every winter. This is no worse... We just don't have a vaccine yet.

    We could have stopped it if the Chinese, recognising the severity if the issue, had shut down their borders and kept it within their country.

    200 cases in the UK is still a minor outbreak. I'm not saying I want it but, in all honesty (and my friend the gp agrees) best to get it over with if it's going to happen rather than dragging it out and destroying the economy in the process.
    WHO says 250,000-500,000 deaths each year from flu. No problem. Coronavirus so far about 3900. Everyone panics. Not helped by scaremongering media reporting.
    Andy
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  14. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparkgap View Post
    WHO says 250,000-500,000 deaths each year from flu. No problem. Coronavirus so far about 3900. Everyone panics. Not helped by scaremongering media reporting.
    So far. It's quite possible it will reach or exceed that in addition to flu if it becomes a "bug going round" as there is reasonable chance it will.

    The current quarantining tactics (varying somewhat between countries depending on their laws, culture and level of needing "to be seen to be doing something") are mainly for:
    - Trying to delay any epidemic to the summer, as warmer temperatures make it harder for viruses to spread (this is why you get a temperature if you get one!)
    - Trying to slow spread so the medical systems can cope with those needing hospital treatment e.g. for pneumonia

    The trouble is that these visible things make people rather scared of it as they think it's really serious. In that regard it's a bit like terrorism or plane crashes - you're highly unlucky to ever get caught up in it[1] but it seems really scary because the worst-case is very nasty.

    Most people who catch it will either have no symptoms or it'll be no worse than a bad cold. I'd only be taking very strong measures (e.g. not going to places with lots of people) if I knew I had a pre-existing condition that would be a major problem and increase risk or was elderly. (I do have asthma but not bad enough that I think it's high risk, those who have asthma bad enough to get frequently hospitalised may need to think differently).

    [1] Other than me, who has been caught up in the IRA's misdeeds twice, so stay away from me if you want to be safe!

  15. #29
    ESL and DESC ianw's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by campwarden View Post
    Maybe there's more panic in the big cities but out west of the m5 all is well.
    Was in London for a Monopoly Run* on Saturday. 4000 scouts started on the concourse of Waterloo station was a sight to see. Heard through the grapevine that a number of teams had cancelled, but the organiser had talked to HQ and kept up to date with advice and HQ were happy for it to happen. I did think London was much quieter than normal, but thinking about it you aren't normally in Trafalgar Square at 10am. Seemed just as busy in the afternoon, and we couldn't get a table in the first two pubs we tried for a lunch stop** Borough market was heaving, and the South Bank was as busy as usual.

    * It was great. There were scouts everywhere. Recommended.
    ** Calm down we were a leaders only team. And using cutlery would be more hygienic.
    Ian Wilkins
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  16. #30
    Senior Member CambridgeSkip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wealdbrook View Post
    Our District Camp has just been cancelled for the end of April. I guess that at a District, County or similar level it is harder to make these decisions and you don't know how attendees are going to react. At a Group level we have a better understanding of the attitudes of our parents and so we plan to go ahead with our Group camp the week after the (ex) District Camp.
    Yes, I do have genuine sympathy for the organisers of large events, they have some very tough calls to make. Imagine you are running something with 5000+ people attending in July/August. You probably have a budget running in the hundreds of thousands and multiple suppliers some of who will be demanding that you confirm or pay for things up front and all this against a background of not knowing if the situation is viable. I'm glad it's not me having to make the call!

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