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Thread: Planning against the threat of a pandemic

  1. #1351
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kev View Post
    I'm very jealous of Scotland. I'd like devolution from London too!
    I'm not at the moment, with the totally unnecessary restriction on travel beyond 5 miles from your house for months yet!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Neil Williams View Post
    I'm not at the moment, with the totally unnecessary restriction on travel beyond 5 miles from your house for months yet!
    Not sure where you're getting that from. It's not mentioned anywhere in the ScotGov plans.

    Pray tell, is this another one of those bits of 'news' which is reported erroneously and taken as truth?


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    Quote Originally Posted by pa_broon74 View Post
    Not sure where you're getting that from. It's not mentioned anywhere in the ScotGov plans.

    Pray tell, is this another one of those bits of 'news' which is reported erroneously and taken as truth?

    Have a read of the large doc that has been issued, it's mentioned in there. Unless they've seen what a lead balloon it was and edited it out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Neil Williams View Post
    I'm not at the moment, with the totally unnecessary restriction on travel beyond 5 miles from your house for months yet!
    I was more thinking along the lines that all the bureaucrats that were being moaned about are actually based in London, not Brussels, and we have given them more power, not less.

  5. #1355
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neil Williams View Post
    Have a read of the large doc that has been issued, it's mentioned in there. Unless they've seen what a lead balloon it was and edited it out.
    I have, I read it when it came out - it said 'broadly within 5 miles'.

    Turns out folks can be relied on to use their common sense, but only in very specific circumstances.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pa_broon74 View Post
    Not sure where you're getting that from. It's not mentioned anywhere in the ScotGov plans.

    Pray tell, is this another one of those bits of 'news' which is reported erroneously and taken as truth?

    It is, in the appendix charts it is referenced.
    Ewan Scott

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    Senior Member big chris's Avatar
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    Are we missing something big by focusing on #cumgate?

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-7-day-average

    Sent from my ONEPLUS A5010 using Tapatalk

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    Quote Originally Posted by big chris View Post
    Are we missing something big by focusing on #cumgate?

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-7-day-average

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    So how would we like to interpret that data. Playing devils advocate here but from that graph I can draw each of the following conclusions

    1. We are well over a month past our peak
    2. We are still the highest death rate (at least out of the countries listed)
    3. Our curve is roughly following that of Italy but our peak was more prolongued, and we are 2-3 weeks behind
    4. Our curve is dropping more steeply than other countries.
    5. The united states has a worse R figure than us

    Some of those are positives... some of those are negatives. And i'm not a government press department statistician!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bushfella View Post
    It is, in the appendix charts it is referenced.
    I know, I saw it. And it didn't say it was a 'restriction'. It certainly wasn't written in law or a rule.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by big chris View Post
    Are we missing something big by focusing on #cumgate?

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-7-day-average

    Sent from my ONEPLUS A5010 using Tapatalk
    I wondered that myself.

    It's a ridiculous situation, so blatantly daft.

    But these figures on the other hand, are absolutely damning...

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    The focus on Cummingsgate (!) is that he needs to go now, it's an immediate thing.

    There needs to be a full enquiry into the handling of the crisis, but at the end of it (like the Grenfell enquiry, which is a multi-year endeavour and very interesting, if harrowing, to follow via the BBC's podcast). And probably a general election.

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    Quote Originally Posted by big chris View Post
    Are we missing something big by focusing on #cumgate?

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...-7-day-average
    The picture it gives depends on which countries you select and playing around with the selection suggests to me that a) this is very much a European thing, the rest of the world has not been hit as hard, and b) all the big European countries have suffered similarly when compared to the rest of the world, with the exception of Germany. Even Sweden which has taken a different approach to the rest of Europe still broadly follows the European trajectory on death rates. That's a broad picture, of course, but it does seem to be a broadly consistent picture. So, why Europe? And why not Germany?
    John Russell
    ex-CSL now ACSL 1st Pinhoe Exeter Devon
    Cubs don't care how much you know, but they need to know how much you care.

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    Quote Originally Posted by campwarden View Post
    So how would we like to interpret that data. Playing devils advocate here but from that graph I can draw each of the following conclusions

    1. We are well over a month past our peak
    2. We are still the highest death rate (at least out of the countries listed)
    3. Our curve is roughly following that of Italy but our peak was more prolongued, and we are 2-3 weeks behind
    4. Our curve is dropping more steeply than other countries.
    5. The united states has a worse R figure than us

    Some of those are positives... some of those are negatives. And i'm not a government press department statistician!
    I am actually with Boris on comparison of countries - even Scotland - i.e. that's its not easy or valid. We have one of the largest cities in the world (which it appears, bizarrely, also had amongst the best adherence to lockdown), we have across the country, a high population density, a commuter culture based on ancient (because it was early) infra-structure, and a policy of putting our older relatives into care homes which is regarded with horror in some cultures. Finally some countries test more than us, others less, Italy and Spain didn't count care home deaths in their stats, Belgium counts deaths which we wouldn't, so you can't even compare numbers of cases or deaths.

    Above all we value our freedoms much more than other countries which is why the govt couldn't possibly put a ring round the M25 enforced by the army as they did in France, I simply don't think we'd tolerate it. There is a definite issue with our national psyche - or something to be proud of.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RisingStar View Post
    I am actually with Boris on comparison of countries - even Scotland - i.e. that's its not easy or valid. We have one of the largest cities in the world (which it appears, bizarrely, also had amongst the best adherence to lockdown), we have across the country, a high population density, a commuter culture based on ancient (because it was early) infra-structure, and a policy of putting our older relatives into care homes which is regarded with horror in some cultures. Finally some countries test more than us, others less, Italy and Spain didn't count care home deaths in their stats, Belgium counts deaths which we wouldn't, so you can't even compare numbers of cases or deaths.

    Above all we value our freedoms much more than other countries which is why the govt couldn't possibly put a ring round the M25 enforced by the army as they did in France, I simply don't think we'd tolerate it. There is a definite issue with our national psyche - or something to be proud of.
    Stats are whatever the statistician wants to make of them.

    The care home culture is an interesting one. In the Mediterranean countries it's much more common for grandma to live with the family.

    This means they're probably only coming into contact with their immediate family and not a raft of care home staff. Covid evidently sweeps through care homes for obvious reasons. I'd struggle to put an elderly relative in a care home at present!

    The fact Sweden had similar results from a much more relaxed lockdown is interesting. How much does what we do affect the curve? We were told everything was about flattening the curve... but we still had a very clear and obvious peak. Is social distancing alone enough to keep R down without needing more draconian measures?

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    Quote Originally Posted by campwarden View Post
    Stats are whatever the statistician wants to make of them.

    The care home culture is an interesting one. In the Mediterranean countries it's much more common for grandma to live with the family.

    This means they're probably only coming into contact with their immediate family and not a raft of care home staff. Covid evidently sweeps through care homes for obvious reasons. I'd struggle to put an elderly relative in a care home at present!

    The fact Sweden had similar results from a much more relaxed lockdown is interesting. How much does what we do affect the curve? We were told everything was about flattening the curve... but we still had a very clear and obvious peak. Is social distancing alone enough to keep R down without needing more draconian measures?
    Sweden's population density is much lower, and they are, apparently, a less sociable society (or so say the Danes !)

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    Quote Originally Posted by RisingStar View Post
    Sweden's population density is much lower, and they are, apparently, a less sociable society (or so say the Danes !)

    Having travelled in Sweden for work, the distances between population centres are sometimes huge - lots of "towns" get signposted from the motorway, but when you get there they are just a few spaced out houses, a church and an old mill. There are some large conurbations, but there is a lot of land (and water) keeping them apart. I'm not sure that Swedes are any less sociable than anyone else. Those I met were business-like, but that was what I was there for...
    Ewan Scott

    It seems that there are a lot of Nawyecka Comanch around....





    Nawyecka Comanch'": "Means roundabout--man says he's going one way, means to go t'other" Ethan Edwards - The Searchers



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