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Thread: Planning against the threat of a pandemic

  1. #1366
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    Quote Originally Posted by RisingStar View Post
    Sweden's population density is much lower, and they are, apparently, a less sociable society (or so say the Danes !)
    We're less sociable than the Romance countries - certainly less touchy-feely - but that doesn't appear to have stopped us having a curve (both up and down) similar to Italy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Neil Williams View Post
    We're less sociable than the Romance countries - certainly less touchy-feely - but that doesn't appear to have stopped us having a curve (both up and down) similar to Italy.
    Maybe its a combination of being less "touchy-feely" reducing the cases, but being less obedient to lockdown / having a less strict lockdown increasing it, and its just coincidence that the numbers have turned out similar?


    Its interesting how countries that are very different have had similar curves... and countries that are quite similar have had very different curves. My experience of travelling in Germany is that in many ways we are more similar to the Germans than to France, Italy, etc, but their curve is very different.

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    Quote Originally Posted by campwarden View Post
    Its interesting how countries that are very different have had similar curves... and countries that are quite similar have had very different curves. My experience of travelling in Germany is that in many ways we are more similar to the Germans than to France, Italy, etc, but their curve is very different.
    I would say that the Dutch and the Germans are the Europeans we are most like. Probably most like a shorter version of the Dutch, but there's not a lot in it. I think the Germans are more compliant with systems, though, and things like 2m distancing fit that quite well. That said, they're not all compliant - fare dodging (the wonderfully termed schwarzfahren - "black travel") is said to be a national sport given that their rail systems are unbarriered.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Neil Williams View Post
    I would say that the Dutch and the Germans are the Europeans we are most like. Probably most like a shorter version of the Dutch, but there's not a lot in it. I think the Germans are more compliant with systems, though, and things like 2m distancing fit that quite well. That said, they're not all compliant - fare dodging (the wonderfully termed schwarzfahren - "black travel") is said to be a national sport given that their rail systems are unbarriered.
    Germany has seen its fair share of anti lockdown protests... something we have largely avoided here.

    Whatever our government do, some will think they're unlocking too much to soon, and others will think it's too little and too late. There's still plenty on Facebook who think if they leave the house they'll die.

    Can't help thinking if kids were back in school they wouldn't be picnicking by the river

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    Quote Originally Posted by campwarden View Post
    Germany has seen its fair share of anti lockdown protests... something we have largely avoided here.

    Whatever our government do, some will think they're unlocking too much to soon, and others will think it's too little and too late. There's still plenty on Facebook who think if they leave the house they'll die.

    Can't help thinking if kids were back in school they wouldn't be picnicking by the river
    Why not? It is half term after all!
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    Quote Originally Posted by campwarden View Post
    There's still plenty on Facebook who think if they leave the house they'll die.
    Fancy not wanting to die, the temerity of some people!
    Ian Wilkins
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    Quote Originally Posted by ianw View Post
    Fancy not wanting to die, the temerity of some people!
    This is a risk issue. *If* you have underlying issues, and *If* you get CV, and *If* it then causes the "Cytokine storm" then you stand a greater risk of dying. At present only one hospital in two is seeing an admission each day, so the incidence in the general population is much reducing. Current evidence that outdoors the virus lasts only 6 minutes in strong sunshine.

    Put that lot together and no you almost *certainly* won't die if you go for a walk, though clearly hospital admissions reducing say that people have been terrified out of attending A&E and are dying as a result. My sister is Ops Directory of a major hospital which has put in measures which have effectively worked and not one person has caught CV in A&E. Yet the public have been terrified out of attending A&E and are suffering.

    So I understand why the public are scared, I don't think they need to be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RisingStar View Post
    This is a risk issue. *If* you have underlying issues, and *If* you get CV, and *If* it then causes the "Cytokine storm" then you stand a greater risk of dying. At present only one hospital in two is seeing an admission each day, so the incidence in the general population is much reducing. Current evidence that outdoors the virus lasts only 6 minutes in strong sunshine.

    Put that lot together and no you almost *certainly* won't die if you go for a walk, though clearly hospital admissions reducing say that people have been terrified out of attending A&E and are dying as a result. My sister is Ops Directory of a major hospital which has put in measures which have effectively worked and not one person has caught CV in A&E. Yet the public have been terrified out of attending A&E and are suffering.

    So I understand why the public are scared, I don't think they need to be.
    Some may be scared. I think the term is pejorative. There will be those who are, for sure, scared - like the old lady down our street who only goes into her garden with her mask and gloves on. But many will just be being careful, thinking twice, or, as Boris would have it, "staying alert".

    I check by blood pressure twice a day, morning and evening, not because I am scared, but because I am being careful and any extended abnormal reading tells me I need to act.
    Ewan Scott

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    I'm not sure we can deduce anything from hospital admissions being reduced and how that might be linked to A&E and extra deaths.

    The notion that people are dying because they're not attending A&E... There's not a lot to support it.

    There has been a ~30% decrease in A&E attendances in England, and a 23% drop in admissions from ED's, (or so I read). It's probably broadly similar here.

    As best as I can find, (rough googling), anywhere between 15% and 40% of A&E visits are inappropriate and could/should be dealt with somewhere else.

    That said, I can't comment on non-emergency procedures and treatments in England. Trusts down your way enjoy a degree of independence that boards up here don't. So they might be cancelling procedures here and there, that could cause earlier deaths among patients. Outpatients and time-sensitive procedures are largely continuing up this way. (Usual caveats apply around NHS standard admin skulduggery).

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    Part of the drop in A&E admissions is because alcohol-related admissions have near completely stopped, because people can't go out for 10 pints and a fight of a Saturday night at the moment.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Neil Williams View Post
    Part of the drop in A&E admissions is because alcohol-related admissions have near completely stopped, because people can't go out for 10 pints and a fight of a Saturday night at the moment.
    Going by my sister... who I guess is quite well connected in her understanding. Yes there's a drop in alcohol and car accidents in particular, but people weren't going in with more serious complaints because to start they weren't seeing their GP, or talking to them, and then serious symptoms got a lot more serious. The E in A&E is the critical point, many GP's would pass serious cases - like Bowel cancer - into A&E for an immediate scan or X-Ray and people aren't even seeing the DR, or if they are then decline to go to hospital.

    Recall the key reasons to go out were Exercise, Work or Essential (Food), nowhere was mentioned non-Covid medical issues. I really do think the govt did far too good a job of keeping people at home and now they won't go out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Neil Williams View Post
    Part of the drop in A&E admissions is because alcohol-related admissions have near completely stopped, because people can't go out for 10 pints and a fight of a Saturday night at the moment.
    I saw that London news talking to some guy from the top estate, because apparently admissions for stabbings have dropped considerably, this lad said "well, you go out on the street and there's no one there, so you're not getting into arguments". Sad that it'll only be a temporary blip and things will go back to "normal" at some point.
    Ian Wilkins
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bushfella View Post
    Some may be scared. I think the term is pejorative. There will be those who are, for sure, scared - like the old lady down our street who only goes into her garden with her mask and gloves on. But many will just be being careful, thinking twice, or, as Boris would have it, "staying alert".

    I check by blood pressure twice a day, morning and evening, not because I am scared, but because I am being careful and any extended abnormal reading tells me I need to act.
    There are of course those who need to be extra careful. Those who#'ve been told by the government to shield for example. Those with underlying health conditions as another.

    They arent, generally, the ones posting doom and gloom on facebook.

    The ones on facebook seem to be mostly either females between 30 and 50, or men over 60. The men over 60 tend to be the same types who, in Scouting, like to quote rules that don't actually exist, insist that written risk assessments must be completed for ecerything in life, etc. The women tend to be mums. There are exceptions to these rules of course before anyone accuses me of stereotyping .

    "I'm not sending my child back to school, he'll be dead within a fortnight".

    "All the parents sending their kids back on Monday are murderers"

    "How can the schools reopen when hundreds of people a day are still dying"

    I beleive the current statistic for the number of deaths under the age of 15 in the UK from covid is 4. Not 4000, not 400, not even 40... just 4. All of whom had underlying health conditions (although i beleive one of them didnt know about the health condition until after they had covid)

    Even among the "parent" generation, the number of healthy adults aged less than 50 (and lets be honest, most kids in year 1 wont have a parent aged over 50) dying is tiny.

    But no. Peopel can't think through the risks logically. The early stages of the government narrative and the press have whipped people up into a real state of hysteria.

    Since lockdown began I've had one day where I didnt leave the house at all. For much of lockdown I was helping on the farm (still am part time), I've been doing twice weekly checks on a couple of holiday cottages (owned by friends of ours who live too far away to come and check the properties themselves, and the caretaker they usually employ is shielding at home as his wife has cancer), enjoying daily exercise, and of course stuff like food shopping.

    This week i've been up at the archery club almost every day... with 2 neighbouring clubs currently closed (one meets at a school, the other is an indoor club that meet at a leisure centre) we've got 3 archery clubs worth of members using our facilities and its almost becoming a full time job just keeping track of bookings and making sure procedures are being followed. One of our members has a mobile catering trailer business, and as most of his usual events, with the exception of a couple of outdoor markets which are starting to get back up and running next week, are shut, we've agreed to let him park in the car park and sell coffees to those using the range. Its a very different way of working - almost feels more like a bowling alley than an archery club with everyone keeping themselves to themselves, and a field captain at one end of the range blowing a whistle to shoot and collect. We've had a lot of parents bringing their kids this week. 1:1 coaching has also started back. And we've only had to speak to two people about social distancing. Even with arrows flying down the range its probably one of the safest places to be outdoors at the moment. I couldnt possibly comment whether any welsh members have travelled across the border (although interestingly a certain well known field archery centre in Wales has also reopened which i'm sure is against the current welsh rules)


    The golf course has also been extremely busy - a few of our archery club members are also golfers, and have been struggling to get tee-times.

    Each of these people who is at the archery club or golf course though, is one less person crowded onto a beach or beauty spot.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Bushfella View Post
    Some may be scared. I think the term is pejorative. There will be those who are, for sure, scared - like the old lady down our street who only goes into her garden with her mask and gloves on. But many will just be being careful, thinking twice, or, as Boris would have it, "staying alert".

    I check by blood pressure twice a day, morning and evening, not because I am scared, but because I am being careful and any extended abnormal reading tells me I need to act.
    There are of course those who need to be extra careful. Those who#'ve been told by the government to shield for example. Those with underlying health conditions as another.

    They arent, generally, the ones posting doom and gloom on facebook.

    The ones on facebook seem to be mostly either females between 30 and 50, or men over 60. The men over 60 tend to be the same types who, in Scouting, like to quote rules that don't actually exist, insist that written risk assessments must be completed for ecerything in life, etc. The women tend to be mums. There are exceptions to these rules of course before anyone accuses me of stereotyping .

    "I'm not sending my child back to school, he'll be dead within a fortnight".

    "All the parents sending their kids back on Monday are murderers"

    "How can the schools reopen when hundreds of people a day are still dying"

    I beleive the current statistic for the number of deaths under the age of 15 in the UK from covid is 4. Not 4000, not 400, not even 40... just 4. All of whom had underlying health conditions (although i beleive one of them didnt know about the health condition until after they had covid)

    Even among the "parent" generation, the number of healthy adults aged less than 50 (and lets be honest, most kids in year 1 wont have a parent aged over 50) dying is tiny.

    But no. Peopel can't think through the risks logically. The early stages of the government narrative and the press have whipped people up into a real state of hysteria.

    Since lockdown began I've had one day where I didnt leave the house at all. For much of lockdown I was helping on the farm (still am part time), I've been doing twice weekly checks on a couple of holiday cottages (owned by friends of ours who live too far away to come and check the properties themselves, and the caretaker they usually employ is shielding at home as his wife has cancer), enjoying daily exercise, and of course stuff like food shopping.

    This week i've been up at the archery club almost every day... with 2 neighbouring clubs currently closed (one meets at a school, the other is an indoor club that meet at a leisure centre) we've got 3 archery clubs worth of members using our facilities and its almost becoming a full time job just keeping track of bookings and making sure procedures are being followed. One of our members has a mobile catering trailer business, and as most of his usual events, with the exception of a couple of outdoor markets which are starting to get back up and running next week, are shut, we've agreed to let him park in the car park and sell coffees to those using the range. Its a very different way of working - almost feels more like a bowling alley than an archery club with everyone keeping themselves to themselves, and a field captain at one end of the range blowing a whistle to shoot and collect. We've had a lot of parents bringing their kids this week. 1:1 coaching has also started back. And we've only had to speak to two people about social distancing. Even with arrows flying down the range its probably one of the safest places to be outdoors at the moment. I couldnt possibly comment whether any welsh members have travelled across the border (although interestingly a certain well known field archery centre in Wales has also reopened which i'm sure is against the current welsh rules)


    The golf course has also been extremely busy - a few of our archery club members are also golfers, and have been struggling to get tee-times.

    Each of these people who is at the archery club or golf course though, is one less person crowded onto a beach or beauty spot.

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  17. #1379
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    Quote Originally Posted by RisingStar View Post
    Recall the key reasons to go out were Exercise, Work or Essential (Food), nowhere was mentioned non-Covid medical issues. I really do think the govt did far too good a job of keeping people at home and now they won't go out.
    No, they were something like "to buy essential food, to work if you cannot work from home, and for health reasons". Exercise just sat in the latter.

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