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Thread: Planning for AFTER Lockdown

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    Planning for AFTER Lockdown

    I have always tried to plan ahead - It has served us well both at Scouts and at Navigators.

    We set up Navigators on a break-even point of 15 members - as we have developed that figure became less important but nonetheless, there comes a point where what we can do falls below the point where it is viable.

    Since Lockdown, we have tried to get some response from Junior Navigators, but only two showed any interest. Of our Navigators, we have some input from 8 out of 18. I can be pretty sure that three will not be coming back, so I have seven unaccounted for.

    So, when we re-open, there is a real chance that our numbers will fall below the break even point we initially established. In one way, this is worrying, in another, it is less so, because, for so long as social distancing remains in place our numbers will be physically limited at our meeting place.

    I am not convinced that SD hikes will work. Most physical games are out, cooking in pairs is out.

    So, on an evening we can do:-
    archery - in groups of 4
    shooting - in groups of 6
    Firestaff - we have space for all
    Circus skills - but spotting for balance activities is out
    Individual cooking - but that will be a hard sell - we can do this in groups of 8 (but shortage of kit means that the recipes would be limited)
    Some Craft activity - but this is something they like to do in pairs
    Perhaps a quiz
    Perhaps a Scavenger Hunt
    Conservation work is a possible - but the local conservation group has cancelled its Balsalm Bashing sessions die to SD issues... so even there we have issues.
    A bike ride may be possible - but not all have bikes - and there are logistics issues.

    I have considered buying Nerf lasers.

    But the key missing element from all this is going to be the socialising - our real selling point.

    I'm going to have to get creative. Even if SD is dropped to 1M most stuff we normally did will not work.

    Anything involving technology doesn't work. They are not interested.

    Map reading/ compass etc are a non-starter.
    Ewan Scott

    It seems that there are a lot of Nawyecka Comanch around....





    Nawyecka Comanch'": "Means roundabout--man says he's going one way, means to go t'other" Ethan Edwards - The Searchers



    www.upperdearnevalleynavigators.org.uk

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    I think you underestimate being face to face with the 1 or 2 metre rule in place. Speaking to and seeing some our young people round the village - they're visibly happy to be seeing each other even with the SD in place. And that's from typically dour, undemonstrative scout-aged boys.

    Also, I don't quite see why SD'd hikes wouldn't work but some of the stuff you've listed would? It just needs a wee bit of planning, the young folk to follow the rules.

    I'm not sure the first things we'll be able to do will be indoors, so for us the SD hikes, maybe an overnighter if we can sort it, will be the first things we can arrange.

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    Scouts Canada have come up with this, no sign of anything from the UK TSA but might give an idea
    https://scoutsca.s3.amazonaws.com/20...-flowchart.pdf

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    I would imagine 2m will be gone pretty soon. Whether it's 1m or 1.5m is yet to be seen. Activities at 1m are very different to activities at 2m.

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    Quote Originally Posted by campwarden View Post
    I would imagine 2m will be gone pretty soon. Whether it's 1m or 1.5m is yet to be seen. Activities at 1m are very different to activities at 2m.
    I've seen multiple family groups in the forest. I can say with certainty that although the adults do their best to distance I've yet to see children of almost any age distance. I find it very hard to believe that we can enforce it in Scouting, but then recent scientific evidence (which I am now beginning to distrust as much as I do the politicians), says that (1) outdoor transmisison is very low probability, (2) pre-symptom transmission is simply not happening as much as once thought and may be very low probability too, (3) Children are less likely to pass it on (4) Children don't die or go into hospital.

    So - I think govt should take that into account. I now worry that SAGE will continue to advise too much caution simply to bolster up their previous advice.

    - - - Updated - - -

    That Canada thing ! I mean - firstly it's a ****** to work through, secondly it's not totally clear to whom all the boxes refer (leader, or YP), and thridly it may terrify parents in the same way that the British Retail Consortiums begging to come back shopping followed a list of rules which makes it sound very unsafe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RisingStar View Post
    I've seen multiple family groups in the forest. I can say with certainty that although the adults do their best to distance I've yet to see children of almost any age distance. I find it very hard to believe that we can enforce it in Scouting, but then recent scientific evidence (which I am now beginning to distrust as much as I do the politicians), says that (1) outdoor transmisison is very low probability, (2) pre-symptom transmission is simply not happening as much as once thought and may be very low probability too, (3) Children are less likely to pass it on (4) Children don't die or go into hospital.

    So - I think govt should take that into account. I now worry that SAGE will continue to advise too much caution simply to bolster up their previous advice.

    - - - Updated - - -

    That Canada thing ! I mean - firstly it's a ****** to work through, secondly it's not totally clear to whom all the boxes refer (leader, or YP), and thridly it may terrify parents in the same way that the British Retail Consortiums begging to come back shopping followed a list of rules which makes it sound very unsafe.
    Add in the fact that they reckon only 1 in every 2000 people in the UK currently has the virus, and that a fair proportion of these will be self isolating

    The chances that kids will be coming into contact with other kids with the virus are pretty tiny.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pa_broon74 View Post
    I think you underestimate being face to face with the 1 or 2 metre rule in place. Speaking to and seeing some our young people round the village - they're visibly happy to be seeing each other even with the SD in place. And that's from typically dour, undemonstrative scout-aged boys.

    Also, I don't quite see why SD'd hikes wouldn't work but some of the stuff you've listed would? It just needs a wee bit of planning, the young folk to follow the rules.

    I'm not sure the first things we'll be able to do will be indoors, so for us the SD hikes, maybe an overnighter if we can sort it, will be the first things we can arrange.
    Not often that we are at variance*. But on this we are. I cannot imagine an SD hike where the kids not come together in at least pairs.

    The stuf listed can be controlled at 2m distance - very readily. On a hike that control is gone - and to be frank a walk where they cannot chat and joke between themselves is kind of pointless.



    * except Pipe Bands
    Ewan Scott

    It seems that there are a lot of Nawyecka Comanch around....





    Nawyecka Comanch'": "Means roundabout--man says he's going one way, means to go t'other" Ethan Edwards - The Searchers



    www.upperdearnevalleynavigators.org.uk

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    Out of interest is your archery in groups of 4 and shooting In groups of 6 due to logistical reasons (e.g. kit) or virus related?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bushfella View Post
    Not often that we are at variance*. But on this we are. I cannot imagine an SD hike where the kids not come together in at least pairs.

    The stuf listed can be controlled at 2m distance - very readily. On a hike that control is gone - and to be frank a walk where they cannot chat and joke between themselves is kind of pointless.



    * except Pipe Bands
    I suppose that's been a silver lining, no pipe band...

    I must have a different bunch of young people. With a little management, my crowd would be okay with social distancing.

    The thing is, it's not just about social distancing, it's also about sharing equipment. Which is why stuff in the hall like shooting, would be difficult. It might work outside if you alternate shooting points. But you'd need to wipe rifles down between each user.

    It wouldn't surprise me if the pipe band got some sort of special permission to meet as normal. Maybe all that huffing and blowing makes them immune or something...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bushfella View Post
    Not often that we are at variance*. But on this we are. I cannot imagine an SD hike where the kids not come together in at least pairs.
    Having watched our lot do their DofE/CSA expeditions I would have few concerns about them being 2m or more apart on a hike. Not sure if that counts as a silver lining or poor group management.

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    Quote Originally Posted by campwarden View Post
    Out of interest is your archery in groups of 4 and shooting In groups of 6 due to logistical reasons (e.g. kit) or virus related?

    Logistical- the area we would use outside is a fenced MUGA 16m wide. I guess we could do 6 doing archery - I would not want them shooting alongside the fence. But since we would not be able to give close support, I'd rather thay had more space than less. The shooting is less of an issue, and the 6 is using two Instructors.

    We have an additional RA/ Method of Operation ready for using the rifles and the archery kit. Part of that is longer than normal sessions with cleaning between users.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Big George View Post
    Having watched our lot do their DofE/CSA expeditions I would have few concerns about them being 2m or more apart on a hike. Not sure if that counts as a silver lining or poor group management.
    Ours tend to walk on twos or threes - even larger groups. They are a very social bunch.

    Our café has seating for about 60. It includes three 3-seat sofas. All 18 will pile into the sofas as a matter of course. Sometimes, I think they do it to wind us up. When we do cooking, they operate in twos and threes, but quite often there will be groups of six gathered around a table chatting and working together. - I think the only time we really get separation is on activities like archery and kayaking. Ironically, on the latter we need them to buddy up but that is a struggle...

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by RisingStar View Post

    So - I think govt should take that into account. I now worry that SAGE will continue to advise too much caution simply to bolster up their previous advice.

    I shouldn't worry about that - the vacillations of Prof Fergusson have more twists and turns than an Agatha Christie crime novel.
    Ewan Scott

    It seems that there are a lot of Nawyecka Comanch around....





    Nawyecka Comanch'": "Means roundabout--man says he's going one way, means to go t'other" Ethan Edwards - The Searchers



    www.upperdearnevalleynavigators.org.uk

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bushfella View Post
    Logistical- the area we would use outside is a fenced MUGA 16m wide. I guess we could do 6 doing archery - I would not want them shooting alongside the fence. But since we would not be able to give close support, I'd rather thay had more space than less. The shooting is less of an issue, and the 6 is using two Instructors.

    We have an additional RA/ Method of Operation ready for using the rifles and the archery kit. Part of that is longer than normal sessions with cleaning between users.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Ours tend to walk on twos or threes - even larger groups. They are a very social bunch.

    Our café has seating for about 60. It includes three 3-seat sofas. All 18 will pile into the sofas as a matter of course. Sometimes, I think they do it to wind us up. When we do cooking, they operate in twos and threes, but quite often there will be groups of six gathered around a table chatting and working together. - I think the only time we really get separation is on activities like archery and kayaking. Ironically, on the latter we need them to buddy up but that is a struggle...

    - - - Updated - - -

    I shouldn't worry about that - the vacillations of Prof Fergusson have more twists and turns than an Agatha Christie crime novel.
    Fair point re the logistics. We were lucky as a scout group to have a good outdoor space for archery at the hall, although the last couple of times i ran it before I left we used the archery club facilities as it meant the other half of the troop could be doing something outdoors at the hall (and also meant we could use the club kit to give us more flexibility on stuff like left handed bows)

    We of course hit scout politics (again) in that although one of the club coaches was more than happy to help run the session, he didnt have a scout permit, so I had to be the session leader on paper, and we were therefore still restricted to 6 on the shooting line. Ho Hum.

    As for your sociable kids - maybe the area you live in isn't as dark as you sometimes paint it. With Scouts we tended to find when left to their own devices the girls were sociable. The older boys woud be sociable with the girls, but the younger boys really struggled to integrate socially and would usually resort to finding a ball to kick around.

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    One of the things that struck me very early on was that my Cub pack would be a transmission vector because we intake from 4 different schools. So whilst a school might be one limiting community we start breaking that down if we're effectively bringing 4 schools together by creating transmission lines between them. I feel I have to remain aware of that.

    On the other hand at present we're seeing very low levels of positive tests locally. Within our district of 145,000 people we're only seeing single positive tests to the extent that we've had 5 in a fortnight. OK so there will be some asymptomatic cases on top but on the other hand the symptomatic should be at home or in hospital so not out and about sharing it. There is a point that R may well be high in some places but it is a multiplier and we need to remember that however big the multiplier, anything multiplied by zero (or near zero) leaves a small or zero result.

    I share the doubts about the science on this - it seems to change and then change back again as the course progresses. Ultimately anyway science can't be the whole answer - there is a political element in this. However morally correct it is to absolutely protect every life, there is inevitably going to come a point where diminishing returns make people reluctant to keep following the rules. We saw the scenes in London over the weekend - I have little doubt most of that alcohol fuelled mob have been finding ways to get around social distancing for weeks and if not then this little smash and bash party was partly as a result of that pent up energy.

    Back to topic - it will be interesting to see how they resolve a number of "childcare" issues this week. Boris shot his mouth off last week pretty much promising a summer of catch up - details to follow this week. Similarly under heat from the work done by the likes of Marcus Rashford to ensure kids get fed (declared interest - I have connections with a project that has been doing holiday meals for kids that would normally get free school meals) the junior minister who'd drawn the short straw in the "go on the media and get shot at" lottery this morning was talking about summer activities in which those kids that attend get fed. Someone somewhere is expected to pull this together, and you can bet your lives that volunteers doing the work is fairly high on the agenda. So it might be something that we at least get asked to look at.
    Does anyone know what's going on?

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    Quote Originally Posted by mang21 View Post
    There is a point that R may well be high in some places but it is a multiplier and we need to remember that however big the multiplier, anything multiplied by zero (or near zero) leaves a small or zero result......
    It's worth remembering that the global pandemic came from one or two people - when R was 2.4 and the number close to zero. Anything that has exponential growth can cheerfully multiply from a number very close to zero to millions in a few weeks as we have seen.

    That's why track/trace and testing is so important. If you can spot those who have / have passed on, the disease then you're in a good place to isolate them and reduce R below 1 for those who have it whilst everyone else gets on with it. I know it's not going well at the moment but I am sure that in time they'll get the app and the track and trace working as well as those in smaller and less densely populated countries and we'll get closer to normality.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mang21 View Post
    However morally correct it is to absolutely protect every life
    It isn't. Because if it was, we would, for example, ban road traffic, because it's one of the biggest killers in the world.

    Unless we move to totally change our political system to a command economy, the economy is necessary to keep people alive, anyway. No money = no food and no NHS.

    Add to that that some lives have no value to the person living them due to them having no quality whatsoever due to, for example, a non-treatable medical condition - this isn't that relevant to COVID but it certainly is to that statement and is a debate in its own right that we could really do with having at some point and has been had in some countries.

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