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Thread: 2021 Census predictions

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    2021 Census predictions

    With it being an interesting year, what are people's predictions for this years census?

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    I was hearing about two districts who have declared it close to declaring and they have lost about 15% - mostly Beavers.

    Our group have dropped to 85 (although still working on it). I think we were about 120 last year. Three years ago we were pushing 200. But we are proud that we have recovered what we have.


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    Tricky one. Looking at the numbers across our group I think Beavers will be down about 50% (no intake for a year), Cubs about 25%, Scouts about the same. However I'm aware locally of a group that was running two sets of each section that has closed completely (not entirely Covid related but the drop will land on these figures) which will make a big dent in local figures. I think for many groups the lack of a years intake of Beavers may well be a big part of any loss - its not an easy age group to bring in for online only sessions and if most of your throughput comes from Beavers moving on, it will be a lost year for the time being.
    Does anyone know what's going on?

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    We are a growing group normally and if we did census last march I would be up about 15 or 20 but as it is we are down 2. There has been a lot of churn but we have managed to add people during the year to counter those we lost.

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    I think the Group as a whole has dropped about 10% year to year. Cubs has reduced from 36 to 34 Jan to Jan which is within the normal variation. Beavers has deliberately let their numbers fall to 15 so that they can meet indoors in a single session (when we return to Amber). I wouldn't be brave enough to use that as the basis of a national prediction.
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    ex-CSL now ACSL 1st Pinhoe Exeter Devon
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    In our group, Beavers have suffered the most. Scouts virtually no change when I factor in the cubs due to move up. Ultimately I think it's going to be a difficult set of numbers to digest, but once things are heading back to normal there will be plenty of opportunity for growth.

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    We’re going to be down by at least 50% even with the most generous assumptions about who will be back.

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    We are also the same, Scouts are stable, Cubs slight drop but biggest issue is with Beavers.

    For the first time in my time here, we no longer have a waiting group and still have spaces in Beavers. We have hardly any interest from brand new beavers in the last 12 months and this should be a key drive from Scouting HQ to work on!

    If this issue doesn't get resolved, this year group will always have very low number of scouting members for the next 8+ years impacting future cub and scout numbers!

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    Quote Originally Posted by marcush View Post
    With it being an interesting year, what are people's predictions for this years census?
    I would predict roughly a halving of membership overall, probably spread fairly evenly.

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    Our Group numbers are down about 30%. Our pattern is quite different from those above. Beavers numbers down only 1. Cubs down about 10%. Scouts down about 70%. Perhaps the different levels of on-line activities of sections and groups have made a difference - either positively or negatively.

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    We're just over 10% up this year- With having to split up into 2 or 3 sub groups per sections to meet the "magic covid 15" during the summer, we actually managed to increase our maximum numbers by a few along the way.

    Once the 15 rule has gone I think with a least 2 if not more sections we are considering keeping operating separately as a way to achieve some meaningful growth over the next few years (of course that view may change in reality when we are actually back to normal!)
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    By guess is at least 50% down, and actually the bigger concern is probably a lot of groups may not re-open as even the strongest groups in my experience can flounder very quickly particularly if key people move on.

    Scouting that will emerge at the other end of this will look very different in my opinion and I am sure in time will emerge back like before Covid but I think that might take 10-15 years minimum as restarting from scratch is very resource intensive

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Rover View Post
    By guess is at least 50% down, and actually the bigger concern is probably a lot of groups may not re-open as even the strongest groups in my experience can flounder very quickly particularly if key people move on.

    Scouting that will emerge at the other end of this will look very different in my opinion and I am sure in time will emerge back like before Covid but I think that might take 10-15 years minimum as restarting from scratch is very resource intensive
    I think Scouting will need a restart. Our Leaders are key, and if we need a minimum of Leaders to restart then that may well scupper any plans we have to retain the previous YP membership. Our Leaders may well have had enough, or their sons and daughters moved on. So I can't, hand on heart, say we will have the Leader resources to restart. Recruiting new YP will not be a problem... our waiting list is always long, and if other Groups fold then we have demand from a wider catchment.

    So our Exec. contingency priority is to keep Leaders onside, everything else is relatively easy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul o View Post
    I think Scouting will need a restart. Our Leaders are key, and if we need a minimum of Leaders to restart then that may well scupper any plans we have to retain the previous YP membership. Our Leaders may well have had enough, or their sons and daughters moved on. So I can't, hand on heart, say we will have the Leader resources to restart. Recruiting new YP will not be a problem... our waiting list is always long, and if other Groups fold then we have demand from a wider catchment.

    So our Exec. contingency priority is to keep Leaders onside, everything else is relatively easy.
    I can see one of the main reasons for decline being lack of leaders, and I think covid-19 is accelerating this issue, which looking back through the censuses adults weren't necessarily looked at anywhere near as much in terms of trends, and I think with flexible volunteering the decline in the amount of volunteering time can't be seen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul o View Post
    I think Scouting will need a restart. Our Leaders are key, and if we need a minimum of Leaders to restart then that may well scupper any plans we have to retain the previous YP membership. Our Leaders may well have had enough, or their sons and daughters moved on. So I can't, hand on heart, say we will have the Leader resources to restart. Recruiting new YP will not be a problem... our waiting list is always long, and if other Groups fold then we have demand from a wider catchment.

    So our Exec. contingency priority is to keep Leaders onside, everything else is relatively easy.
    Fully agree there will be a chunk of people who are sadly no longer around, no longer able to volunteer or willing to volunteers and if I am honest there may be some bits of Scouting that we need to stop for a while and cut our cloth accordingly.

    In the longer term, one of the implications will be a shifting of risk appetite and our ability/willingness to do certain things will be limited for a while ?

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